34 Asian Legal Business | December 2024 imported from China and other countries. This could lead to significant disruptions in global trade flows, affecting supply and demand mechanics across various industries. “The commodities market, for example, had just come out from one of its most volatile periods arising from COVID disruptions,” he says, adding that the prolonged Ukraine war and sanctions targeting Russia have increased market instabilities should Trump ramp up tariffs on global trade. The expected continuation of the trade war between the U.S. and China is particularly worrisome, especially given China’s current economic slowdown. As Bhinder notes, “China’s economy, in turn, has huge implications for Asia and the rest of the world.” Countries with significant Chinese investments, such as Vietnam, might find themselves caught in the crossfire of the U.S.-China tensions that show little sign of relenting. Tom Fu, partner at Hong Kong law firm Johnson Stokes & Master (JSM), expects continued U.S.-China trade and economic rivalry to prompt Chinese businesses to explore opportunities in markets such as the Middle East, ASEAN, and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. This could present a window of opportunity for Indonesia, ASEAN’s largest economy. John Lumbantobing, partner at Indonesian law firm Rifdaan Novarazka & Prabowo, has seen an uptick in investor interest from mainland China to Indonesia in recent weeks. “In fact, (Indonesian) President Prabowo recently floated the idea of joint development between Indonesia and China within the area of “overlapping claim” (presumably with regards to the International trade while tough-on-China economist Peter Navarro has been invited back to the administration as Trump’s new trade czar, completing a trifecta of trade hawks ready to ruffle the feathers of major Asian economies. However, not all hope is lost. Trump, famed for his unilateral and often conspicuous decision-making process, has shown a propensity for policy U-turns even in the face of his sternest threats. Case in point: At the height of trade hostilities, Trump had threatened to impose 20 percent tariffs on cars and car parts from Europe, but ultimately, the U.S. and the European Union reached an accord to avoid further escalation. These developments transpiring in the world’s largest economy have sparked intense speculation about its impact on global markets. This protectionist surge has especially ignited concerns amongst Asian markets about a potential overhaul of international commerce framework. The prospect of continued SinoU.S. decoupling and a reorganisation of global supply chains presents both formidable challenges and exciting opportunities for Asia’s burgeoning markets. In response, law firms across Asia, closely tethered to the commercial considerations of their client base, are attempting to carve out secure pathways in this new era of complex and dynamic geopolitical environment. Tariff Man: Round Two One of the most significant areas of concern is Trump’s approach to international trade. Baldev Bhinder, managing director of Blackstone & Gold in Singapore, anticipates that Trump would impose higher trade tariffs on goods Fool me once Renewed uncertainties brought by Donald Trump’s White House comeback have prompted law firms in Asia to prepare for a wave of geopolitical and economic challenges anticipated from a new era of America First. By Sarah Wong and Nimitt Dixit As Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office goes from “what if” whispers to an imminent reality, countries in Asia are gearing up for a hardened round of America-first policies boldened by a firmer popular mandate. The U.S. president-elect, already known for his claims on hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, has wasted no time in appointing a cadre of hardliners to key cabinet and administration positions. This swift action has left governments and businesses across Asia grappling with a new wave of uncertainties. Notably, tariffs champion and investor Scott Bessent and Wall Street executive Howard Lutnick have been tapped to spearhead the Trump administration’s treasury and trade agendas, • Asia braces for renewed America-first policies as Trump poised to return to the Oval Office • Continued U.S.-China trade tensions and potential tax policy changes prompt Asian businesses to reassess strategies and investment opportunities • Law firms across Asia should position themselves as business and political advisors
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